Australia facing a gap in weather satellites?

Recently, the United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) has placed ‘Mitigating Gaps in Weather Satellite Data’  on their high risk list of government programs that are most in need of transformation.

In particular, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has identified that there is a ‘substantial risk of a gap in polar satellite data in the afternoon orbit, between the time that the current polar satellite is expected to reach the end of its life and the time when the next satellite is expected to be in orbit and operational. This gap could span from 17 to 53 months or more, depending on how long the current satellite lasts and any delays in launching or operating the new one.’

The polar satellites, together with their Geostationary counterparts, are ‘critical to weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment.’ The result of any gap would be reduced accuracy weather forecast, in particular surrounding extreme events such as hurricanes, storm surges and floods. The follow on effects would be to ‘place lives, property and our nation’s (United States) critical infrastructure in danger’. Interestingly, Polar satellites provided 84 percent of the data used in the main American computer model tracking Hurricane Sandy, showing just how critical they are.

What does this have to do with Australia I hear you asking?

Well, currently the Australian Bureau of Meteorology receives the data from the NOAA Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) Series of Satellites – precisely the satellites that have the predicted gap in service.  A gap which is now on the U.S. GAO high risk list.

That means that Australia is likely to face exactly the same gap in data services, as we have long been a free-rider of the U.S. Satellite data. This data is also now integral to the accuracy of Australian weather forecasting. This means that Australia also faces reduced accuracy forecasts, particularly for extreme events, such as cyclones and floods, which Australia has been copping more than its fair share of recently. In particular, the Polar Satellites are critical to map the path of a cyclone – will it go out to sea, or will it make landfall? As in the U.S., reduced forecasting for Australia would also place lives, property and critical infrastructure at risk. You can imagine what an extra 24 or 48 hours’ notice does for the safety of lives and property when you have a category 5 cyclone making landfall.

So, where can Australia go from here?

We can hope that the existing satellites out-last their intended design lives, and hope that the U.S. can launch the follow on satellites, the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) as early as possible. The U.S. also has launched the Suomi satellite, originally a technology demonstrator for the JPSS project, which is now being used operationally, and will help cover some of the gap if the technology survives.

Alternatively we can rely on other data sources – ESA in particular has a vast array of polar weather data that we may be able to source, however there would be costs in transitioning over to the new data, and we’d be equally reliant on Europe as we have been with the U.S.

In the U.S. a private company called PlanetIQ  is proposing to launch a 12-satellite constellation into Low Earth Orbit, to provide critical weather data. It is of course, expecting the U.S. government to pay for the service, so Australia would probably have to pay for the service itself if the U.S. government went down this path.

The issue facing Australia is one that has been warned about within the Australian space industry for a number of years. When we rely on foreign nations for our critical space needs, we have no ability to influence these programs, which, whilst being very cost effective, leaves us at the mercy of other nations and their decisions.

Australia should use this gap to take another look at our space needs, our space policy, and examine if Australia could play a modest, but effective part in securing our critical space needs. I'm certainly not suggesting that Australia goes it alone on its own weather satellites, however a small contribution to our partners such as the U.S., Japan, Europe and China may help secure their projects, and in turn, our data. We could even tie our contribution to a small amount of Australian work share, meaning any investment we make, would flow to Australian industry and jobs. Perhaps we could step up and build a small payload or instrument, focussing on one or two niche capabilities.

It is a classic example of where Australia needs to take back control of our space needs that are critical to our nation.

Australasia Satellite Forum 2013 to be held on 8th of April 2013

The Australasia Satellite Forum 2013 will be held on Monday the 8th of April 2013, in Sydney. The event is known as one of the more premier events in the Australian Space Industry - particularly for telecommunications satellite issues.

Last year's forum was sold out, so if you are interested, head here for more information.

SingTel may sell Optus Satellite division

SingTel has hired both Morgan Stanley and Credit Swiss to review the potential for selling the Optus Satellite division. The Oputs Satellite division currently operates five satellites in orbit, and has one Satellite, Optus 10 under construction.

Speculation has started to form around APT Satellite from Hong Kong and EutelSat from Paris, however due to the defence contract on the Optus C1 satellite, a chinese connected buyer (APT is partly owned by ChinaSat) may raise some eyebrows in Canberra and complicate a potential deal.

Valuations are speculated to be in the $1B to $2B range, with the potential that if SingTel cannot find a buyer, an IPO might be another option. It is not clear how the NBNCo Satellite plans may have affected the future direction for the Optus Satellites division, however it will no doubt be in the back of the mind of any potential buyers.

The Biarri Cubesat Project - Australia’s next Satellite contribution?

The Biarri Cubesat project, is a four nation project involving Australia, the US, the UK and Canada. In Australia, the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) is working closely with BAE Systems, ACSER at the University of NSW, the Australian National University and Electro Optic Systems (EOS).

The project will see three, 3-Unit Cubesats launched by the United States in 2014, and involves precision flying experiments, which will also be tracked by EOS in Australia using their laser tracking system.

As part of the project, the US is providing the launch facilities and satellite bus, the UK is providing the communications links, Canada is providing the ground station infrastructure and Australia is providing the space-qualified L1-only GPS receiver, which BAE Systems has already qualified in its testing facilities. The FPGA based GPS receivers are designed to measure the precise relative positions of the Cubesats in their low earth orbit.

DSTO’s Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Division (ISRD) is leading the charge from the government front, with BAE Systems from Edinburgh Parks in South Australia leading on the industry side.

The Biarri project will use the Colony II Cubesat bus, which is a US NRO program, with Boeing currently building the satellite bus. No doubt through the Biarri project, DSTO will gain some very good insight into designing, developing, launching and operating a satellite, which bodes well for their future capabilities in small satellites.

DSTO is also apparently also working on another, higher Australian content Satellite called Bucaneer – together with BAE Systems. It will feature a Space Based Miniaturised High Frequency radar payload, and is likely to have a US supplied spacecraft bus.

2013 Southern Hemisphere Summer Space Program Wrap-up

The 2013 Southern Hemisphere Summer Space Program (SH-SSP) was recently held in Adelaide, Australia at the University of South Australia in partnership with the International Space University.

Once again, the program was well attended by 37 students from 11 countries, and features a live-in program for Professionals, Graduates and Senior Undergraduates. The program, modelled on the ISU’s Summer Space Program focusses on the interdisciplinary and intercultural aspects of space education.

Public Lectures 

As part of the SH-SSP, there is always a set of public lectures. This year saw 4 separate lectures including:

• Friday 11 January - International Astronaut Event, which included Astronauts Dr Andy Thomas of Australia, Dr Soyeon Yi of South Korea, and Mr Paolo Nespoli of Italy. 
• Thursday 17 January - Satellite Remote Sensing – the Benefits for Society, discussing the latest policy developments and technical capabilities of earth observation satellites from an expert panel that included Dr Kimberley Clayfield of CSIRO, and Mr Anthony Wicht of the Space Policy Unit, Department of Innovation, Canberra. 
• Monday 21 January - Using Satellites to overcome the Digital Divide – included Australian Satellite companies Newsat, Optus and NBNCo 
• Thursday 31 January - Showcasing the Australian Space Research Program, including the Australian National University, Vipac, Flinders University and the Institute for Telecommunications Research at UniSA. 

The 2013 Public Lectures can be found online here.

White Paper 

As part of the SH-SSP, the students prepare a white paper, which was this year titled ‘Common Horizons’, and can be found on the website here.

The 2013 ‘Common Horizons’ white paper examined the connection between sustainability on Earth, outer space activities, and sustainability of the space environment.

As with all SH-SSP activities, the white paper focusses on examples and case studies from the ‘Global South’, or those countries at or below the Tropic of Cancer, which covers most of the world’s developing nations, together with very few of the global space super powers.

 The White Paper has a good examination of Earth Sustainability, followed by a look at the issues surrounding sustainability of the space environment that we operate in. In particular, there is some good information surrounding Space Debris and the radio spectrum, two of the key issues facing the space industry at this time. On page 25 there is also ‘A day on earth without space’, which poses an interesting example of how a normal day would be very different, if access to space and satellite technology were to disappear. It concludes with a chapter examining the ‘Earth Space Relationship’, and how the sustainability of both is highly interrelated.

The White Paper Recommendations are highly relevant to the Australian space domain:

• Recommendation 1: Increase involvement in international organizations focused on space sustainability 
• Recommendation 2: Raise Public Awareness of Space Sustainability 
• Recommendation 3 – Establish a Global South Space and Earth Sustainability Prize Foundation 

Congratulations to all students involved in the White Paper – I have no doubt that we will be discussing Space sustainability a lot more in the future, and the students who have been involved in writing the paper will be at the forefront of the discussion, so that by the time they are space industry leaders, we will all still have sustainable access to space.

NBNCo to Launch with Arianespace

NBNCo announced on the 4th of March that they had selected Arianespace to launch the NBNCo satellites in 2015. The deal, worth up to $300 Million sees NBNCo purchase two Ariane 5 launches from Arianespace.

The Ariane 5 Launcher from Arianespace (Photo credit: Arianespace)

In selecting Arianespace, NBNCo has gone for reliability, with Arianespace having over 50 successful launches in a row. The Satellites will be launched from Arianespace's Guyana Space Centre in French Guyana on the north east coast of South America.